A new feature for Hit Tracker is the classification of all home runs into one of three categories, based on how far past the fence they flew.  The categories are:

 

- "Just Enough" or "JE", which means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence...

- "No Doubt", or "ND", which means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the really deep blasts...

- "Plenty", or "PL", which is everything else.

The league averages for 2006 were 27% JE, 55% PL and 18% ND.  Hitters who amassed a significantly larger than average percentage of JE homers may have benefitted from good fortune, and thus may be ripe for a regression towards the league average this season.  Hitters who tallied significantly fewer JE homers than the league average may have suffered from bad luck, and thus might be expected to do better in 2007.

 

In 2007, Hit Tracker will be tracking all long fly balls in addition to homers, which should allow for a more comprehensive analysis of which hitters were lucky or unlucky with respect to the long ball, either due to the impact of wind, or due to random chance.

The data are located here.